How to Separate Facts from Assumptions in Business Decisions
Separate facts from assumptions using source, date, falsifiability, ownership and validation checks.
Published:
Treat a statement as a fact only when a named source verifies it for the relevant time and scope. A belief used without that proof is an assumption and needs a validation action.
The source-date-scope test
Confidence and seniority do not turn an assumption into a fact.
- 01
Ask for the source
Name the record, observation or accountable person that verifies the statement.
- 02
Bound time and scope
A true statement for one region or last year may be false elsewhere or now.
- 03
Define disproof
State what evidence would change the classification or decision.
- 04
Assign validation
Give assumptions an owner, method, deadline and consequence if false.
‘Users prefer mobile’
Until research identifies which users, tasks and context support it, this is an assumption. Device logs can establish usage but cannot prove preference alone.
What this method cannot guarantee
- Evidence and operating conditions can change; revisit the record when a material input changes.
- This method structures evidence and judgement; accountable people still make and own the final decision.